M&A Quarterly Review—3rd Quarter 2022

Middle market M&A activity continued to moderate in Q2 2022

  • Deal volume declined 7% YoY to 13,753 during the TTM ended June 2022
  • Total deal value shrank by 2% to $376.6 billion during the same period
  • Valuation multiples eased to 7.4x TTM adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2022 from 7.5x in the previous quarter

Macroeconomic headwinds started to affect the availability of capital

  • Total leveraged loan issuance in the U.S. reached $276.9 billion YTD July 2022, down ~50% YoY
  • Cash and liquid securities held by investment grade companies declined by a record 20% YoY in H1 2022
  • Buyout firms held $873 billion of dry powder as of June 1, 2022, slightly above the amount at the end of 2021

Economic recovery continues to slip in the face of monetary tightening

  • GDP contracted by -0.6% in Q2 2022, marking the beginning of a technical recession
  • The LEI declined for the fifth consecutive month as deteriorating key indicators increased the risk of recession
  • Consumer confidence and spending plans improved, reversing three consecutive months of decline

M&A activity is likely to continue its slower pace through year-end

  • Valuations and volumes will likely finish lower in 2022 as uncertainty reigns
  • As pandemic-related stimulus wears off and inflation persists, investors are likely to see more distressed opportunities
  • Private equity could put in a floor of sorts for M&A activity because of its size and need to put capital to work

Risks to our view

  • Business and consumer confidence turn materially negative
  • The Federal Reserve raises rates faster or more than expected
  • As winter approaches, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and other supply constraints cause more severe disruptions